Libya

AT the time of writing the 'resistance' have entered Tripoli and ransacked Gaddafi's compound — a significant turnaround from just a few days earlier when their assault on Tripoli was repulsed.

It seems the civil war has passed a critical point — Gaddafi has lost. Our early intervention appears vindicated. Prompt action by NATO with the support of the UN and Arab League gave legitimacy to action that saved many lives, including those under threat of massacre in Benghazi.

But what of the future? Nothing clear-cut here. A lesson of history is that post-conflict planning is as important as military victory. Though the government has worked especially closely with the 'resistance' National Transitional Council to ensure that effective government and stable state institutions are created. this planning is yet to be tested.

A lesson from Iraq is that effective government is not about the purging of the police, army and political class — post-Saddam this created a loss of administrative capability and a pool of discontented military willing to join the civil strife that followed his fall.

What is needed now is pragmatism — in post-Gaddafi Libya, politics needs to become what Bismarck termed 'the art of the possible' — the best solutions will be those that draw in as much of the existing state apparatus as reasonably possible. And this must, of course, rest upon a stable security situation and that is not yet there.

There may be a protracted period of further fighting, in Tripoli and in other parts of the country. Libya's future will depend now on the instincts and stability of the National Transitional Council — on the non-military support we provide — but also upon the conduct of her politics. The dampening of the final embers of conflict and the rise of stability demand considerable pragmatism.